U.S. Wind Installations Surge, But Orders Drop 50%

The U.S. wind market saw 2.1 GW of installations in Q1 2025—more than double the capacity added during the same period in 2024—according to the Q2 2025 Wind Energy Monitor by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association. However, this strong start contrasts sharply with a 50% decline in turbine orders, which have dropped to their lowest level since 2020.

The report highlights continued momentum in onshore buildouts, with all first-quarter installations coming from new greenfield projects. Yet looming regulatory uncertainty, shifting tax credit structures, and rising tariffs are casting a long shadow over future development.

“The surge in first quarter wind installations, combined with a strong development pipeline, underscores the wind industry’s resilience,” said John Hensley, Senior Vice President of Markets and Policy Analysis at ACP. “But this momentum is threatened by the changing policy landscape.”

Regulatory Shifts Reshape Market Forecasts

Following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) earlier this month, the U.S. wind sector faces a compressed timeline to qualify for tax credits. The legislation shifts eligibility from a “placed in service” standard to a “start of construction” date within 12 months of passage. Projects that qualify may still benefit from a four-year safe harbor period, pending final IRS guidance.

Wood Mackenzie projects that total installed wind capacity will reach 197 GW by 2029, including:

• 33 GW from new onshore builds
• 6 GW from offshore developments
• 5.4 GW from repowering older projects

Still, this cumulative figure is slightly lower than previous forecasts, down 0.4% due to phaseout-related uncertainty.

Offshore Holds Steady, Onshore Faces Delays

While offshore projects remain relatively insulated—most capacity through 2029 is already under construction—onshore growth is facing delays. Developers are adjusting to risks tied to permitting, tariffs, and tax credit sunsets, prompting a quarter-over-quarter net reduction of 430 MW in the 2025–2029 onshore forecast.

Western states are expected to lead new installations, adding 9.4 GW through 2029. A final-year spike in 2029–2030 is also anticipated, as developers rush to qualify for tax incentives before they expire.

Wind Turbine Orders Stall as Costs Rise

Despite the installation boom, turbine order volumes fell sharply in the first half of 2025. Wood Mackenzie attributes this decline to macroeconomic pressures and policy volatility. Their models show:

• Tax credit expirations could raise the unsubsidized levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 25%
• Tariffs alone may raise LCOE by up to 10%

These changes are making offtake agreements harder to secure and increasing financial risk for developers.

U.S. Turbine Producers + Future Outlook

As of 2025, the top wind turbine manufacturers in the U.S. market include:

• GE Vernova
• Siemens Gamesa
• Vestas

Despite early-year momentum in installations, the U.S. wind sector enters a precarious phase. The market is now defined by a widening gap between development potential and actual turbine procurement, driven by tax policy shifts, tariff exposure, and permitting delays.

As GE Vernova and Vestas continue to dominate domestic installations, the future of wind energy in the U.S. will hinge on how quickly regulatory guidance is clarified and whether upcoming IRS decisions restore developer confidence. Without that clarity, even a strong project pipeline may not translate into the capacity needed to meet national clean energy goals.