Southeast Asia’s energy landscape continues to be defined by its reliance on fossil fuels despite international efforts to promote cleaner alternatives. According to the IEA’s 2024 Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, fossil fuels have played a central role in meeting the region's rapidly increasing energy demand over the past two decades. From 2010 to 2023, the region’s energy needs were primarily addressed through coal, oil, and natural gas, with coal being the dominant source.
Coal has been Southeast Asia’s primary beneficiary of energy growth, accounting for around 50% of the region’s electricity generation. Countries like Indonesia, which holds nearly 90% of the region’s coal production, have relied on coal to fuel their expanding industrial sectors. Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines also lean heavily on coal for electricity and other industrial applications such as steel production and manufacturing.
The 2024 IEA report indicates that coal’s share of Southeast Asia’s energy mix rose from 9% in 2000 to 28% in 2023, making it a key energy source for power generation and industrial use. As coal demand grows, so do the region’s carbon emissions, complicating efforts to meet climate targets and net-zero goals.
While coal dominates electricity generation, oil remains the largest component of Southeast Asia’s overall energy demand, making up over 30% of the region’s consumption. This dependence is particularly evident in the transport sector, where rising car ownership and freight activity have driven oil consumption from 1.3 mb/d in 2000 to 2.8 mb/d in 2023. In Indonesia and Malaysia, oil is crucial for industrial and commercial transport, while natural gas is critical in power generation and domestic energy needs.
Natural gas, contributing about 20% to the energy mix, was historically a key export for countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. However, Southeast Asia has shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer of natural gas due to rising domestic consumption and slow production growth. The reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, which have exposed the region to price shocks, presents a growing energy security risk, as demonstrated during the 2022 global energy crisis.
Southeast Asia’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels is not without significant challenges. The 2024 IEA report emphasizes that the region remains highly vulnerable to price volatility and geopolitical risks associated with its reliance on imported oil and gas. Additionally, the carbon intensity of its energy system presents a major hurdle in achieving sustainability goals.
Many Southeast Asian nations are locked into long-term contracts with coal-fired power plants, making it difficult to transition quickly to cleaner alternatives. These contracts often include early termination penalties, further complicating efforts to phase out coal. Moreover, the relatively young age of coal plants (with an average lifespan of 15 years) makes it challenging to justify their early retirement.
Natural gas is seen as a bridge fuel for the region’s energy transition, but rising costs and supply chain disruptions dampen its prospects as a reliable alternative. Countries like Thailand and Singapore, which have relied on LNG imports, face high exposure to fluctuating global prices, further intensifying their energy security challenges.
Despite the region’s commitments to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, fossil fuels are expected to play a significant role in Southeast Asia’s energy mix. According to the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), demand for coal, oil, and gas is projected to increase until 2035, after which clean energy will start making more significant inroads into the system.
However, the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) outlines a more optimistic path, assuming that all Southeast Asian countries meet their climate goals and that clean energy investments rise sharply. Under this scenario, fossil fuel demand peaks before 2030, and the region begins to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions.
Southeast Asia’s reliance on fossil fuels presents a complex challenge for its energy future. While the region recognizes the importance of clean energy transitions, the financial and structural hurdles in phasing out coal and reducing oil and gas dependence are substantial. In the following article, we will explore the policy and financial investments needed to support these transitions and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy across the region.
