Today, approximately 82% of SAF production capacity relies on Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology. While mature and cost-effective, HEFA's dependence on limited feedstocks—including used cooking oil and animal fats—creates a looming bottleneck. The report predicts that by 2030, global SAF demand will outstrip HEFA feedstock availability, marking a "HEFA tipping point." Post-2030 growth, therefore, hinges on commercializing and scaling alternative pathways such as Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and e-SAF derived from green hydrogen and captured CO2.
Mandates in the EU and UK alone will drive 1.1 Mt of SAF demand in 2025, with global demand projected to hit 15.5 Mt by 2030 under current policy trajectories. However, delays and cancellations of announced projects—particularly in the U.S., UK, and EU—have highlighted the fragility of supply growth. Policy uncertainty, fluctuating fossil fuel prices, and trade tensions (especially with China over used cooking oil exports) are hampering investment and infrastructure deployment.
The U.S. presents a particularly volatile landscape. While the SAF Grand Challenge aims for 3 billion gallons annually by 2030, key incentives like the 45Z tax credit face expiration in 2027. Without extension or stronger state-level mandates, SAF production may fall short of targets, with capacity currently forecast at just 5.6 Mt by 2030.
Asia is emerging as a major SAF exporter, with announced capacity rising to 5 Mt by 2030, surpassing projected regional demand. China alone accounts for 45% of Asia's SAF pipeline. Meanwhile, Europe faces a potential shortfall, with only 30% of announced projects under construction. Without immediate financial investment decisions and accelerated permitting, the EU risks missing ReFuelEU's 2030 sub-targets—especially for synthetic fuels.
Latin America, driven by Brazil's Fuel of the Future law, is also gaining traction, aiming for 2.4 Mt in capacity by 2030, largely from soy and tallow. However, feedstock competition remains a challenge across all regions.
To meet expected demand of 196 Mt by 2050, the SAF industry must transition beyond HEFA. The report models four future pathways:
The SAF Market Outlook 2025 delivers a clear message: the decarbonization of aviation depends not only on technology and capital, but on the policy clarity and feedstock diversification required to scale. As the world nears the HEFA tipping point, stakeholders must align on long-term strategies that prioritize advanced SAF pathways and sustainability standards. The next five years will define whether SAF remains a transitional tool or becomes the foundation of net-zero aviation.
