Renewable Sources, Cleaner Fuels in Electricity will Drive Energy Carbon Reductions

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Electricity Emissions

Carbon emissions from electricity will fall in the United States through 2050 because the electric power industry will continue a transition from carbon-intensive coal to cleaner sources such as natural gas and renewable energy; this will lead to an overall energy-related emissions decline, according to the Energy Information Administration.

With renewable energy and clean fuels like hydrogen taking on a greater focus throughout industries, the EIA predicts in its Annual Energy Outlook 2022 that coal’s share of US energy-related carbon emissions will decrease from 22% in 2021 to 13% in 2050. The EIA also forecasts that the electric power sector will fall despite energy consumption growing by about 9% through 2050.

Overall energy related carbon dioxide emissions will decrease through the mid-2030s before increasing again through 2050. Although, as the population in the country grows, the agency sees the amount of emissions from energy staying slightly below what it was in 2021 throughout the period even as increased demand will lead to higher emissions later in the forecast period.

The EIA forecasts carbon emissions from energy use to fall to 4.5 billion metric tons in 2037, 6% below what they were in 2021. Those emissions will jump back to 4.7 billion metric tons in 2050, which will still be 2% below 2021 levels, due in part to emissions from petroleum and natural gas offsetting declines in coal consumption.

Electricity production accounts for about a quarter of the US’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to the EPA, with more than 60% of that coming from burning fossil fuels.

Renewable energy such as solar and wind continue to grow in the country, and exceeded expectations last year according to the EIA, resulting in nearly 20% of electricity needs. The EIA says solar will produce half the new utility scale power generation this year. Efforts like microgrids and energy storage are also helping make gains in this area while providing energy resiliency and individual businesses can be more energy efficient and reduce emissions.

Transportation will likely continue to contribute more energy-related carbon emissions than any other sector through 2050, despite less energy consumption in the industry than both electric and power sectors toward the end of the period. Despite gains in the transportation industry to move to electric and battery energy and cleaner fuels, the EIA says this will be because it projects the continued use of liquid fuels for most types of travel.

For the industrial sector the EIA says natural gas used in the bulk chemicals industry will primarily drive growth in its energy consumption.

Environment + Energy Leader