G20 Climate Promises Undermined by Weak CDR Progress

Despite their global economic weight and emissions responsibility, G20 nations are not delivering credible carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in line with the Paris Agreement. A new analysis reveals that only a small fraction of members have submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as required — with just Australia, Brazil, and the United States doing so by the February 2025 deadline. By the end of September, fewer than half had filed revisions, and of those, only eight included enough detail to assess the role of CDR in their climate targets.

The data signals a missed opportunity for countries to clarify how they intend to scale both land-based and engineered CDR. Most carbon removal today — about 2 gigatons of CO₂ annually — comes from conventional methods like afforestation, but that volume needs to increase dramatically to stay within the Paris-aligned temperature pathway.

Very few countries, however, have outlined viable roadmaps to support that growth. The United Kingdom remains a rare exception, projecting up to 23 MtCO₂ per year from engineered removals by 2035, largely from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In contrast, other G20 countries either bundle land-use removals under general emission reductions or omit forward-looking projections altogether, deepening the transparency gap.

Credibility Gap Widens as Policies Lag Behind Climate Targets

The difference between climate ambition and policy delivery is growing more apparent. While many G20 members have announced net-zero targets, most lack binding legal frameworks or integrated plans to scale CDR effectively. According to the report, only the European Union, the United Kingdom, and South Korea currently meet the three markers of credible commitment: legally binding net-zero laws, specific CDR policies, and long-term strategic planning.

The EU has integrated CDR into climate legislation and laid out a detailed roadmap for land-use and engineered removals. The UK has similarly codified its targets and aligned sector strategies under its Net Zero Strategy. South Korea has built projections into national planning and committed to maintaining its land sink through 2030.

Elsewhere, progress is inconsistent. Nations like Indonesia and China have outlined land-use goals, but much of the focus remains on halting deforestation rather than expanding net removals. Japan, Türkiye, and South Korea anticipate a drop in land removals by 2030, while Canada and Australia reference CDR in transparency documents without linking them to measurable outcomes.

The political environment adds another layer of complexity. The U.S. may exit the Paris Agreement in 2026, raising questions about the durability of federal climate support. Without clear, enforceable CDR strategies, other nations will need to compensate or risk derailing global progress.

With COP30 approaching in Brazil, the message is clear: symbolic pledges are no longer enough. Unless G20 countries translate targets into policy-backed action, the credibility of their climate commitments — and the integrity of global efforts — will continue to erode.