Under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), adopted in 2023, EU countries must build hydrogen stations at least every 200 km on major roads and in all major urban hubs by 2030. The goal? Enable long-haul trucking and support the shift to zero-emission transport. But a one-size-fits-all approach based purely on distance doesn’t consider regional freight traffic or geographical hurdles.
A deep dive into 600,000 European freight routes shows how off-target these plans might be. In France, actual future demand could be seven times higher than the 2030 targets predict, leaving truck operators without enough coverage as hydrogen adoption ramps up. Meanwhile, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece risk the opposite — a network of costly stations with barely any use, translating into tens of millions of euros in wasted annual spending.
Beyond traffic flows, geography turns out to be a key blind spot in Europe’s hydrogen strategy. Using European Space Agency topography data, researchers found that gradients and local terrain can dramatically boost energy consumption on certain routes. Simply put, a flat 200 km drive isn’t the same as 200 km through mountain passes when it comes to hydrogen needs.
The Chalmers team argues for smarter, demand-driven station placement that considers these local differences. Their model combines freight traffic data with geographic and energy consumption factors to give a more accurate picture of where hydrogen stations are truly needed.
The findings are already shaping policy discussions for the EU’s 2026 AFIR review. National governments and fleet operators alike are being urged to rethink infrastructure investments, balancing climate goals with practical economics.
Looking ahead to 2050, this refined approach aims to avoid creating stranded assets — stations that sit idle and drain budgets — and instead build infrastructure where it can actually support the shift to cleaner freight transport.
