The 72-page DNV Technology Progress Report, a supplement to DNV’s ongoing Energy Transition Outlook, covers ten key technologies seen as critical to decarbonization goals during the next five years.
According to the report, the world needs to transition faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system, reducing emissions by around 8% each year to ensure an energy future in line with the 1.5-degree ambition set under the Paris Agreement. This urgent and complex challenge needs full energy-system thinking: understanding the timeline and interdependencies of technologies and policies. It also requires the courage to make difficult decisions.
Each of the ten technologies discussed in the report is covered in-depth, including historical context, demand expectations, key drivers, policy issues, and costs, among other factors that may be uniquely relevant to each technology. Technologies selected are based on two criteria: whether it will lead to an observable shift in the energy system, and how the technologies interact with each other, or energy value-chain integration.
Importantly, DNV points to the current energy transition being different than previous transformations, citing a mission-centric foundation driven by the need to address the UN Sustainable Development Goals and issues that were amplified by the pandemic such as supply chain disruptions and social inequities. The report suggests that the use of near-term policy action to fulfil long-term goals is unprecedented and differentiates the current energy transition from previous ones that have mainly been driven by market forces. This has been coupled with the global finance industry adding momentum for decarbonization with the push for greater sustainability transparency and a surge in sustainable investing such as green bonds hitting record levels.
The Ten Technologies:
DNV notes that these transition technologies are deeply interlinked, and in some cases interdependent; any discussion on green hydrogen, for example, must account for developments in renewable electricity, hydrogen storage and transport systems, and end-use technologies such as fuels cells.
The report includes most of the technologies that all net-zero commitments and pledges towards a Paris-compliant future will aim to use. No single technology can solve the challenge, rather they will need to work together. The next few years will be pivotal for these technologies if we are to have any chance of reaching the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, according to the report’s authors.