The recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment is not just another government report. The Assessment, in fact, should be viewed as a valuable resource to environmental executives and business leaders. Because it provides a region-by-region overview of anticipated climate-related scenarios, the assessment forecasts a range of issues that decision-makers must recognize and plan for to remediate negative impacts on their organizations.
Drafted by experts within the federal government and led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the report provides a summary of the science and modeling used to predict changes in the United States’ climate over the next century, including providing certain economic impact assessments and estimates. The assessment provides valuable information and tools for companies, cities, and individuals seeking a greater understanding of local climate change impacts. The region-by-region data is particularly useful to planners as they seek to understand issues related to facility permitting, land and water use changes, employee-related issues, and the potential for severe weather-related events.
Overall, the assessment paints a gloomy picture without efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The assessment recommends adoption of mitigation and adaptation plans in the near future to avoid the most deleterious effects of climate change and manage for continued economic, ecosystem, and personal health. The report recommends an iterative management process to take into account the actual impact of climate changes and the state of science as studies continue to improve the accuracy of predictive modeling.
The origin of this report dates back to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandated that the US Global Change Research Program deliver a report to Congress and the President no less than every four years that “1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program…; 2) analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and 3) analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”
In order to meet the objectives, a large working group reviews data, reports, and studies on an ongoing basis, working to deliver reports useful to decision-makers, infrastructure and natural resource managers, public health officials, emergency planners, and others. This Fourth Assessment augments the prior assessments with a range of Data Tools and Scenario Products, detailed in Appendix 3, that are useful for honing in on any specified area of the country. The working group modeled four scenarios with varying ranges of global temperature increases. The impacts are qualified by confidence ranges and the likelihood of the suggested impacts. The report discusses population changes, economic changes, and geographic changes that may result from climate change.
Both elementary and highly sophisticated information and model results are presented in the assessment, so users with differing interests and levels of scientific understanding will find the assessment useful. For example, the assessment consists of a section of Summary Findings; a National Overview of 17 sections covering such topics as infrastructure, transportation, and water; 10 regional summaries; and a section on mitigation and adaptation responses. If the reader has reviewed prior assessments, the Summary Findings do not appear to be significantly more informative than prior assessments.
However, the level of detail found in the national overview and region-by-region assessments is new and remarkably detailed. These detailed summaries and the data tools that support them are potentially the most useful parts of the assessment. Both public entities and private companies can use this data to plan growth, and understand regional opportunities and risks that are elucidated in the models. The data may be specific enough to identify potential mitigation and adaptation actions for specific facilities to consider implementing.
The following themes are indicative of those found throughout the assessment:
1. Impeded Economic Growth:
“Without substantial and sustained global mitigation and regional adaptation efforts, climate change is expected to cause growing losses to American infrastructure and property and impede the rate of economic growth over this century.” (Summary Finding No. 2)
This finding suggests that, while some net benefits to a warming climate may be felt in the United States in the near term, the long-term effects may result in “substantial net damage” to the US economy.
2. Increasingly Vulnerable Social Systems:
“Climate change affects the natural, built, and social systems we rely on individually and through their connection to one another. These interconnected systems are increasingly vulnerable to cascading impacts that are often difficult to predict, threatening essential services within and beyond the Nation’s borders.” (Summary Finding No. 3)
The economic impacts of disasters and changed climate may result in cascading harm to communities as one system, like transportation, affects trade, which then affects economic well-being and then personal health – a cascade that may then impact the national economy.
3. Degrading Infrastructure:
“Our Nation’s aging and deteriorating infrastructure is further stressed by increases in heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, heat, wildfires, and other extreme events, as well as changes to average precipitation and temperature. Without adaptation, climate change will continue to degrade infrastructure performance over the rest of the century, with the potential for cascading impacts that threaten our economy, national security, essential services, and health and well-being.” (Summary Finding No. 10)
This finding is one of the more alarming in the report, because it details not only the effects of climate change but the massive amount of time and treasure that will be required to keep basic infrastructure operating well.
Coastal erosion and sea level rise are commonly cited as the most obvious impacts of climate change. But the regional data reveals much more. Each regional section was prepared and reviewed by local reviewers. The sections can provide more targeted information for business planning.
For example, the Midwest will be impacted in ways that the coasts may not. According to the report, the Midwest will notice the specific impacts of higher heat on farming and yield decreases. Because the Midwest feeds much of the country and, indeed, the world, the report notes that the impacts on farming must be expected. Yields are impacted not only by increased heat but the increased heat’s impact on soil health, growing seasons, and precipitation changes.
The assessment notes some successes in mitigation and adaptation already. For example, the assessment notes that adding buffer zones at agricultural farm fields in the Midwest can minimize damage and soil loss caused by extreme precipitation events.
Other actionable insights from the report directed to the Midwest include:
Perusing the Fourth National Climate Assessment, particularly the more detailed sections, may help you lead your company toward an outlook that accepts both the opportunities and challenges of the future.
