A new rapid attribution study confirms that human-driven warming made Hurricane Melissa more intense, more destructive, and far more likely to occur.
According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that fueled Hurricane Melissa were made approximately six times more likely by climate change. The Category 5 storm, which hit the Caribbean in late October 2025, rapidly intensified from 68 to 140 mph (110–225 km/h) in just 24 hours—an event scientists describe as “explosive intensification.”
WWA’s international team of 20 researchers, including scientists from The University of the West Indies (UWI), the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Cuba, Austria, and the U.S., analyzed rainfall, wind, and ocean data to isolate the fingerprints of human-induced warming.
“The atmospheric setup that allowed this storm to strengthen so dramatically was made six times more likely by today’s warmer climate,” the study concludes.
Using the Imperial College London Storm Model (IRIS) and historical weather datasets, the researchers found that:
The storm left at least 75 people dead and caused billions of dollars in damages across Jamaica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
The UWI Mona Campus contributed four co-authors to the report: Prof. Michael Taylor, Prof. Tannecia Stephenson, Dr. Jhordanne Jones, and Dr. Jayaka Campbell. Their message is clear—Hurricane Melissa should mark a shift in how the Caribbean approaches climate resilience.
Dr. Jayaka Campbell, climate scientist at UWI Mona, shared,
“Hurricane Melissa’s catastrophic landfall in Jamaica is not an anomaly; it is the canary in the coal mine. When a storm can explosively intensify from 70 to 185 miles per hour in less than three days over ocean waters that are 1.5 °C warmer than normal, we are witnessing the dangerous new reality of our warming world
Campbell emphasized that the conditions enabling such storms have been building for decades:
“We have the science, we understand the risks, and we know the solutions. Every fraction of a degree of warming we prevent, every investment in resilient infrastructure, every dollar committed to adaptation is the difference between survival and catastrophe for millions.”
Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London and co-author of the WWA analysis, warned that worsening storms may soon exceed what many nations can withstand.
“What we see with Hurricane Melissa and other recent monster storms is that they are becoming so intense that they will soon push millions of people beyond the limits of adaptation,” Otto said. “Unless we stop burning coal, oil, and gas, we will see more and more countries reaching these limits.”
WWA’s findings align with a broader scientific consensus that warming oceans—now averaging roughly 0.9 °C above 20th-century norms—provide more latent heat and moisture to fuel tropical cyclones, increasing both rainfall intensity and maximum wind speeds.
For the Caribbean and other climate-vulnerable regions, the results highlight the urgent need to update infrastructure design standards and rethink disaster preparedness frameworks.
“We’re already engaging regional negotiators and will ensure this science reaches decision-makers ahead of global climate talks,” said Prof. Michael Taylor, Dean of Science & Technology at UWI Mona. “Our goal is to put Caribbean science at the center of adaptation strategy.”
WWA has completed more than 100 peer-reviewed attribution studies linking human-caused climate change to specific weather extremes—from European heat waves to Pakistan’s 2022 floods. But the group notes that hurricanes present unique analytical challenges, as their impacts depend on both extreme rainfall and high wind speeds, compounded by storm surge and local topography.
For the Caribbean, Hurricane Melissa is now both a tragedy and a test case. It demonstrates that even modest additional warming can shift risk profiles dramatically.
“Without significant reductions in fossil-fuel use, more intense and destructive storms like Melissa will become increasingly common,” the study warns.
