Covering 29 regions across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, the study reveals that around 74% of the 21-millimeter decline in dry season precipitation is directly tied to forest loss. While global climate change is the major driver behind rising temperatures, the drying trend stems largely from local land use decisions.
Using refined statistical modeling, researchers were able to separate the effects of deforestation from broader climate trends. They found a nonlinear relationship between forest loss and rainfall—where the most significant weather shifts happen early in the deforestation process, particularly when 10–40% of forest cover is removed. This makes early intervention efforts more impactful than previously assumed.
In regions where deforestation hit nearly 29%, dry season rainfall dropped by over 50 millimeters—shifting local conditions to resemble the semi-arid Caatinga biome. That ecological shift poses growing risks to agriculture, energy infrastructure, and ecosystem stability.
While forest clearing is driving the drop in rainfall, temperature increases in the Amazon tell a more global story. The study tracked a 2°C rise in maximum surface temperatures between 1985 and 2020. Of this, roughly 83.5% was attributed to global greenhouse gas emissions, with deforestation accounting for the remaining 16.5%.
This dual pressure—global warming amplifying local sensitivity to deforestation—accelerates the pace of climate instability. As greenhouse gas levels rise, the heating effect on already-deforested areas becomes more extreme, raising the stakes for businesses with supply chains in the region.
The research separates local and global drivers by analyzing how atmospheric changes correlate with time and land use percentages. It confirms that global emissions, not local deforestation, are the primary source of increased CO2 and methane concentrations, with less than 1% of these increases linked to Amazon land use changes.
Looking ahead, if deforestation trends continue at current rates, projections show that by 2035, the region could see a total temperature rise of 2.64°C and a further 28.3-millimeter drop in dry season rainfall. These changes could push the Amazon closer to ecological thresholds that are difficult to reverse.
For companies operating in or sourcing from the Amazon, the implications are direct and increasing. Water scarcity, shifting weather patterns, and reduced ecosystem services all translate to operational risks. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, hydropower, and food and beverage supply chains face heightened vulnerability as local climates shift rapidly.
The study also offers a practical framework for risk assessment. By quantifying the separate impacts of deforestation and global climate change, companies can better prioritize mitigation strategies. While forest preservation can't offset global temperature rise, it can significantly buffer against rainfall loss and regional weather volatility—both of which are critical to maintaining long-term viability in the area.
