UK's 1.5 Million Home Goal Requires 450,000 New Builds by 2029

In response to the growing housing crisis in the UK, the government has pledged to build 1.5 million new homes by 2029. The Housing Forum's latest report, Roadmap to 1.5 Million Homes, provides a comprehensive breakdown of what needs to happen over the next five years to meet this ambitious goal. With an emphasis on collaboration, policy reform, and resource allocation, the report outlines key steps to address long-standing issues in planning, land availability, and affordable housing.

The Challenge: Accelerating Home Construction

The scale of the challenge is clear: in the 2022-23 period, only 234,400 homes were completed, with projections for 2023-24 showing a steep decline to around 150,000. To reach the target of 1.5 million homes, annual builds must surge to 450,000 by 2028-29. This represents an unprecedented level of housebuilding not seen in over 50 years.

The report identifies several critical hurdles, including the financial strain on housing associations and councils, rising construction costs, and a slow planning system. These issues, combined with workforce shortages and a lack of available land, create significant obstacles to increasing the rate of homebuilding.

A Five-Year Plan for Success

The Housing Forum's roadmap breaks down the journey to 1.5 million homes into five key phases:

• Year 1 (2024-25): Laying the Foundation Immediate action is required to reverse the declining trend in housing starts. This includes resourcing the planning system and addressing delays caused by nutrient neutrality rules, which have stalled over 100,000 homes. The proposed Housing Accelerator Fund, with an initial $5 billion investment, aims to support affordable housing and reduce homelessness by half within three years,
• Year 2 (2025-26): Strengthening Capacity By the second year, efforts will focus on boosting the capacity of housing associations and councils. The government must prioritize the renewal of the Affordable Homes Programme, ensuring that adequate funding is available to meet the growing demand for social housing. This phase also emphasizes the importance of building larger homes to alleviate overcrowding and address specific needs in the social housing sector.
• Year 3 (2026-27): Enhancing Skills and Technology As the housing sector recovers, the skills shortage will become more acute. The report calls for the establishment of Skills England, a collaboration between employers and training providers to address the growing demand for workers skilled in low-carbon housing construction. Investment in new technologies, including those supporting decarbonization and independent living for older people, will also be critical​.
• Year 4 (2027-28): Scaling Up By year four, earlier reforms should begin to show results, with a significant increase in housebuilding rates. The government will need to monitor and respond to emerging needs in the sector to ensure that momentum is maintained. This includes working with local authorities to aggregate demand and bring forward larger pipelines of development​.
• Year 5 (2028-29): Building a Sustainable Future The final year of the roadmap emphasizes the need for cross-party support to maintain the progress made and build on it for the future. Long-term grant settlements, rent policies, and support for new technologies will be essential to ensure the continued growth of housing delivery beyond 2029​.

Resourcing the Planning System

One of the most pressing issues highlighted in the report is the need to improve the planning system. Only 1% of local planning authorities currently meet the statutory 13-week deadline for processing major applications, severely limiting the speed at which new homes can be built. The report calls for a targeted recruitment and retention program for planning officers, alongside performance monitoring to ensure that improvements are made​

Balancing Housing and Environmental Needs

A significant portion of the roadmap is dedicated to balancing the need for new homes with environmental protections. The government's commitment to addressing nutrient neutrality rules, which have stalled construction, is a critical step forward. However, the report stresses that these rules must be accompanied by measures to tackle pollution at its source, ensuring long-term sustainability without compromising housing delivery​

The roadmap also includes provisions for first-time buyers, with proposals to give them priority access to new developments and provide mortgage guarantees to help bridge the affordability gap. While these measures are helpful, the report suggests that more targeted fiscal incentives, such as the Help to Buy scheme, could provide further support for those struggling to enter the housing market​

The Path Forward

The Housing Forum's roadmap provides a clear and actionable plan for meeting the UK's ambitious housing targets. By focusing on policy reform, investment in skills and technology, and strategic planning, the government has the opportunity to turn the tide on the housing crisis. The next five years will be crucial in determining whether the goal of 1.5 million new homes can be met, but with the right approach, it is achievable.