The 2024 Emissions Gap Report, "No More Hot Air … Please!" from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), exposes the stark discrepancy between climate commitments and tangible progress. With an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in 2023 and a widening gap between current trajectories and climate targets, the report underscores the need for transformative action to avoid severe climate consequences. UNEP’s findings provide a roadmap for aligning future nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with the Paris Agreement’s goals, emphasizing sector-specific changes, investment reforms, and international cooperation.
As of 2023, GHG emissions have risen to 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent, a 1.3% increase from 2022. This growth trend contradicts the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit warming to below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C, with the G20 alone responsible for 77% of global emissions. Despite climate commitments, only modest gains have been realized, and the current course leads to a projected 2.6°C of warming by the century’s end.
The report’s findings reveal a need for a global emissions reduction of 42% by 2030, which translates to a 7.5% annual reduction in emissions. However, without substantive policy updates, the world remains far from this target, with the 2035 milestone rapidly approaching.
The report highlights solar and wind technology as critical enablers in emissions reduction, potentially delivering 27% of the required reductions by 2030. Forest conservation and management also play essential roles, with action in these areas contributing approximately 20% of emissions reduction capacity. While technological advancements have driven down costs and improved the scalability of renewable energy, the pace of adoption remains insufficient.
Building, transportation, and industry sectors also require swift changes in efficiency, electrification, and fuel transitions. The UNEP report recommends tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency improvements to meet interim emissions targets.
Over the next year, countries will revise their NDCs for the 2035 milestone, and UNEP urges that these updates include clear, sectoral targets across all GHGs. The G20, as the dominant group of emitters, holds a unique responsibility to lead by example, accelerating actions faster than the global average. The report highlights the need for transparency, recommending countries communicate conditional and unconditional elements of their commitments, specify financing needs, and provide a roadmap for sectoral benchmarks.
One of the UNEP report’s most urgent recommendations is to address the severe financing gap for emissions mitigation, particularly in developing countries where investment has lagged since the 2008 financial crisis. The report calls for a sixfold increase in mitigation investments and advocates for international finance reforms to align global funding mechanisms with climate priorities better. Such reforms would enable emerging markets and developing economies to advance climate goals. Current estimates suggest that the transition to net zero could require an additional $0.9 trillion to $2.1 trillion annually through 2050.
As the world prepares for COP30 in Brazil, the UNEP report’s findings stress the importance of immediate action to avoid irreversible climate consequences. Without extensive action by 2030, achieving the Paris Agreement’s targets becomes virtually impossible, risking further environmental and socioeconomic damage. Immediate action to bridge the emissions gap could reduce projected warming by up to 0.5°C, underscoring the need for enhanced support to countries achieving their conditional NDCs.
UNEP’s report starkly reminds us of the critical timeline for climate action, urging governments, corporations, and international institutions to engage in ambitious and coordinated efforts. By focusing on a rapid, inclusive transition to renewable energy, adopting sector-specific targets, and mobilizing international investment, the world has a narrow but feasible pathway to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
The 2024 Emissions Gap Report calls for a dramatic elevation in global climate ambition, aligned with sectoral and financial benchmarks that can deliver the necessary emissions reductions by 2035. It is a clarion call for no more “hot air,” urging leaders to solidify ambitious targets with decisive, accountable policies. COP 30 provides an essential platform to advance these commitments, ensuring the transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon future is achievable and actively underway.
