The Biden-Harris Administration has announced an investment of $3.72 million to increase research efforts aimed at enhancing water level forecasts for the Great Lakes. This initiative, part of President Biden's broader Investing in America agenda, is made possible through funding allocated under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) jointly announced the allocation, highlighting its crucial role in supporting regional resilience and economic stability.
The funding, channeled through NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), will be directed towards the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR), headquartered at the University of Michigan.
Water level forecasts play a pivotal role in various sectors, including commerce, recreation, and safety, across the Great Lakes region. Unfortunately, the accuracy and lead time of these forecasts have been limited due to inherent uncertainties. The infusion of resources into research endeavors seeks to overcome these challenges by extending the forecast horizon from six months to a year in advance.
The Great Lakes are experiencing significant environmental changes due to fluctuating water levels. High water levels can cause shoreline erosion and flooding, damaging infrastructure and property. In 2019 and 2020, the region experienced record-high water levels. These changes are often attributed to climate change, which influences precipitation, evaporation, and basin runoff. The economic ramifications are notable, particularly for shipping, as cargo tonnage must be reduced, leading to increased costs.
In ecological terms, habitat disruption in the area arises from swift fluctuations in water levels and severe weather occurrences. Furthermore, escalating surface water temperatures since 1995 have contributed to diminished water levels through heightened evaporation rates and postponed ice formation.
Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo emphasized the economic significance of the Great Lakes, which serve as a linchpin for various industries, including tourism, recreation, and marine transportation. "The vitality of the Great Lakes ecosystem is integral to the prosperity of communities across the region," stated Secretary Raimondo. "By investing in advanced forecasting capabilities, we are equipping stakeholders with the tools needed to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating water levels and adapt to the evolving impacts of climate change."
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad echoed these sentiments, highlighting the profound influence of water level fluctuations on the livelihoods of millions residing along the Great Lakes shoreline. "With over 27 million individuals relying on the Great Lakes for their sustenance and economic well-being, it is imperative that we enhance our understanding of water level dynamics," remarked Administrator Spinrad. "This investment will enable us to harness cutting-edge technologies, such as machine learning, to provide more accurate and reliable forecasts, thereby empowering communities to proactively address challenges posed by extreme weather events."
The project's innovative approach integrates machine learning with climate models to discern the intricate interplay between global climate phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña, and Great Lakes water levels. By unraveling these complex relationships, researchers aim to furnish policymakers and local authorities with actionable insights to support coastal resilience and safeguard critical infrastructure.
Dr. Debbie Lee, Director of GLERL, underscored the practical implications of advanced forecasting for community preparedness and hazard mitigation. "By offering more precise, long-term forecasts, we are enabling communities to make informed decisions and implement targeted measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of fluctuating water levels," affirmed Dr. Lee. "From commercial shipping operations to recreational activities, a diverse array of stakeholders stands to benefit from enhanced forecasting capabilities, ensuring the sustained well-being of Great Lakes communities."
Empowered by cutting-edge scientific innovation, stakeholders throughout the Great Lakes region will be poised to effectively address emerging challenges in the foreseeable future.
