(Pictured: bus from electric vehicle maker Arrival; Credit: Arrival)
With government initiatives aimed at reviving the economy following the Covid-19 crisis on the rise, the electric bus and truck markets are expected to record significant growth in coming years. The market for electric trucks and buses will grow at a CAGR of 148.5% and 44.9% respectively, from 2020 through 2026, according to Research and Markets. However, the electric commercial vehicle market will face serious competition from alternative fuel-powered vehicles, which are gaining prominence.
The establishment of low-emission zones, stringent emissions norms, and the ultra-low NOx regulations will aid the growth of the electric bus and truck market. Technology developments effectively reducing the total cost of ownership of electric commercial vehicles is another key factor driving the exponential growth and adoption of these vehicles.
Additionally, volatility in crude oil prices and the need for clean transportation solutions, especially in the urban environment, will propel the transit bus and medium-duty truck segments in the US.
Still, the electric commercial vehicle market faces significant competition from alternative fuel-powered vehicles. Natural Gas (CNG and LNG) commercial vehicles are projected to witness higher adoption in the short and medium terms. However, with the growth in charging infrastructure and reduction in the acquisition costs of electric commercial vehicles, this will have a much lower impact on electrification in the long run.
Commercial vehicle OEMs in the US are moving toward electrification in a big way because of the increased presence of other global manufacturers in the market. The US electric commercial market is also home to innovative startups challenging established OEMs, creating a flourishing competitive environment, according to the report.
While the commercial truck and bus market is increasingly moving toward electric vehicles, propane may be another solution for the decarbonization of the industry. A recent comparative analysis looked at the carbon footprint of medium-duty and heavy-duty (MD-HD) engine vehicles powered by both propane and by electricity, and found that propane-fueled MD-HD internal combustion engine vehicles provide a lower carbon footprint solution than MD-HD electric vehicles charged using the electrical grid.