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New analysis from the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) shows that four oil and gas majors — Shell, Eni, Total, and Repsol — are now aligned with the emissions reductions pledged by the signatories to the Paris Agreement. BP and OMV are now the only European integrated oil and gas companies who fail to align with the Paris pledges.
However, the research shows that despite these commitments, none of the companies are aligned with net zero 1.5°C or even 2°C pathways.
TPI calculates that the average European oil and gas company would need to cut its emissions intensity by more than 70% between 2018 and 2050 to align with a 2°C climate scenario by 2050, while a genuine net zero strategy would require a 100% cut in absolute emissions. Even the most ambitious new targets fall far short of this.
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Shell’s goal to cut its emissions intensity by 65% by 2050 is the most ambitious in the sector and the closest to alignment with a 2°C scenario. But TPI says that “Shell’s claim that it will be aligned with a 1.5°C climate scenario is not consistent with our analysis.”
Eni is the only company to have set an absolute emissions target, aiming to reduce emissions (including Scope 3) by 80% by 2050. Its ambition to reduce emissions intensity by 55% across all energy products is particularly strong, given its carbon intensity is already only 65.3 tCO2/TJ, 10% lower than its peers, the research notes. Eni also discloses the expected contribution of offsets (40 MtCO2e per year), making theirs the most comprehensive strategic response, according to TPI.
Total has increased the ambition of their 2040 emissions intensity reduction target and added a new 2050 target of 60%. However, this alone would not deliver Total’s ambition to “achieve net zero across all its production and energy products used by its customers in Europe by 2050”.
BP’s plans to reduce the carbon intensity of marketing sales by 50% by 2050 exclude both trading/supply and crude oil sales. The research reports that, together, these product categories account for 11mTJ or 59% of energy assessed by TPI and over 800 MtCO2e emissions annually. As such, BP’s targets are less ambitious than those from Shell, Total, and Eni. They fail to align with the Paris pledges and are far from alignment with 2°C or net zero, according to TPI.