MIT: UN Climate Talks Likely to Fail

Talks at next year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris are unlikely to result in the goal of slowing climate change and keeping global temperatures below two degrees Celcius, according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as reported by The Hill.

The MIT study examines the steps that the major players in the talks have taken to fight climate change, as well as the emissions reductions they are working to set individually, to create a model of what the final agreement might look like.

According to the study, US involvement in any future climate work is “crucial,” and the agreement reached in 2015 can be expected to “bend the curve of global emissions but will not put the globe on the path consistent with commonly stated long-term climate goals.”

The study also states that in the next 18 months before the talks, negotiations between leaders will have a significant influence on global greenhouse gas emissions as far out as 2045 or 2050.

Henry D. Jacoby of MIT says he sees emissions increasing through 2030 and on into subsequent decades if there is not an additional international agreement. Jacoby goes on to ask what the nature of a follow-up process will be if, in the early stages of the negotiation, it is clear that the world is not getting on a path to temperature goals.

In the US, there has been both support and opposition to policies regarding climate change. Late last year, over 40 businesses, including General Motors, Nike and Levi Strauss, signed the Climate Declaration, which called upon federal policymakers to address climate change as an economic opportunity.

However, after the release of proposed climate change goals by the Obama administration earlier this year, a number of businesses voiced their opposition. In specific, Exxon Mobil released a report saying that climate change policies could pose significant risks to the value of its assets and future profitability.

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