U.S. demand for advanced lighting products is forecast to rise nearly 14 percent per year through 2011, reaching $4.4 billion, according to Advanced Lighting, a new study from The Freedonia Group. Gains will be fueled by consumer desires for more energy efficient lighting, which will boost demand for compact fluorescent lamps. By 2011, CFLs are expected to replace incandescents as the dominant choice in residential building applications.
Development of improved light emitting diode technology will create opportunities for these products in lighting applications. Already gaining share in the motor vehicle market, LEDs pose a longer term threat to CFLs in building applications.
Although U.S. demand for advanced lighting will be robust, growth in domestic production will be modest. Shipments of advanced lighting products are projected to rise less than two percent annually through 2011, reaching $1.6 billion. The U.S. is a net importer of advanced lighting products, and the trade deficit will widen as imports continue to expand faster than both overall demand and exports through 2011.
Compact fluorescent lamps are expected to post the fastest gains through 2011. Among markets, building applications are expected to post the strongest gains, as CFLs take market share from traditional incandescents. Demand in the motor vehicle market will benefit from the rising use of high intensity discharge lamps in headlamp applications. In addition, rising light vehicle production will boost gains as a matter of course. Signage applications will present opportunities, as LEDs supplant neon in many areas.